wall street in advance

February 2016 Economic Statistics
and Other Economic Influences

TUESDAYS:
                Weekly Chain Store Sales*
                 Average Hourly Earnings*
                 API Weekly Gas/Oil Stockpiles Report*  **
(4:30p.m.)
    WEDNESDAYS:
                
Mortgage Applications  Data
                 EIA Weekly Report on Gas & Oil Stockpiles* (10a.m.)
    THURSDAYS:
                 Weekly Unemployment Report*
                  Weekly Mutual Fund Flows*
                   Natural Gas Storage Levels* (a.m.)

 *Except Holidays    ** As of 1/09         All Dates Subject to Change:
Sunday,       Feb. 14 Valentine's Day
South Korea Jan. Import/Export Price Index
    OVERNIGHT into US Mon. a.m. et:
         Japan 15Q4 GDP, Business & Private Consumption, Capital Expenditures, GDP Price Index, Dec. (F) Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization
         South Korea Jan. Trade Balance (Imorts/Exports) + Offshore Hldgs
         RBNZ Jan. Offshore Holdings + Dec. M2 Money Supply
         UK Feb. Rightmove House Prices
         Aussie Jan. New Vehicle Sales
         Singapore Dec. Retail Sales
         India Jan. WPI Fuel, Food, & Manufacturing Inflation
         China Jan. Trade Balance (Imports/Exports)

Monday,       Feb. 15 US Markets Closed for George Washington's Birthday  
Pres. Obama hosts Special ASEAN-US Summit (California thru 16th)
Eurozone Dec. Trade Balance
ECB Chief Draghi speaks @EU Parliament (Brussels)
"Economic, Fiscal & Financial Governance of the Euro Area: Lessons from the Crisis" w/Jean-Claude Trichet & EU Bailout fund head Klaus Regling speaking (Luxembourg)
France Auctions 3-, 6-, & 12-month BTFs
Nat'l Bank of Austria Gov. Nowotny attends a book launch & economic growth discussion (Vienna)
Canadian Markets Closed for Family Day
      OVERNIGHT into US Tues. a.m. et:
           RBA (Aussie) Releases Feb. Meeting Minutes
           (RBNZ) New Zealand Q1 2-year Inflation Expectation & 15Q4 Retail Sales
           South Korea Feb. Interest Rate Decision
           Italy Dec. Trade Balance
           UK Jan CPI, RPI, PPI, & Dec. DCLG House Prices
           German Feb. ZEW Survey
Tuesday,      Feb. 16 Empire State NY Fed Manufacturing Survey
NAHB Feb. Housing Market Index (snow & freeze slows traffic)
Philly Fed. Pres Harker speaks on eco outlook @2016 Economic Forecast panel sponsored by Lyons Companies & Univ. of Delaware Ctr for Economic Education & Entrepreneurship
US Treasury Auctions $37B 3- & $30B 6-month Bills
MN Fed's Kashkari on lessons from the financial crisis @Brookings Institution (Washington 10:03am)
US Dec. TICs  (4pm Who do you think was buying up the bonds in Jan/early Feb?)
Boston Fed's Rosengren speaks on Eco Outlook (Colby College, Waterville ME 7:30pm et)
RBA (Aussie) MPC Feb. Meeting Minutes Released
Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment
UK P.M. Cameron addresses EU Parliament on British allliance terms with EU
Brazil Dec. Retail Sales
Canada Jan. Existing Home Sales & Brutish Columbia unveils 4th balanced budget
     OVERNIGHT into US Wed. a.m. et
          Singapore Jan. Trade Balance/Non-Oil Exports
          South Africa Jan. CPI & Dec. Retail Sales
          South Korea Jan Unemployment Rate
          Japan Dec. Machine Orders, Jan Dept. Store Sales
          UK Jan. Jobless Claimant Count/Change, Dec. Avg Earnings, & ILO Dec. Unemployment Rate
          Eurozone Dec. Construction Output
          Swiss Feb. ZEW Survey           
          German 10-year Bund Auctions
Wednesday, Feb. 17 FOMC Jan. 26--27th Meeting Minutes Released (2pm est)
Jan. US PPI-Final Demand
US Jan. Housing Starts/Building Permits
Jan. US Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization
US 15Q4 Ecommerce Retail Sales
Redbook weekly Store Sales Snapshot
MBA weekly Mortgage/Refinance Applications
S.L. Fed's Bullard speaks on economy & monetary policy to Fed Forecast dinner hosted by CFA Society (St Louis 6pm)
Canadian Dec. TICs
Brazil Foreign Exchange Flows
New Zealand Jan. Job Advertisements, 15Q4 Producer Price Inputs/Outputs
    OVERNIGHT into US Thurs. a.m. et:
          Japan Jan. Trade Balance (Imports/Exports)
          Aussie Jan. Unemployment Rate/Change/Participation Rate
          RBA's Edey speaks (Sydney) + Release of Jan. FX Transactions
          China Jan. CPI
          BoJ's Ishida speaks in Fukuoka (More on additional tools?)
          Swiss Jan. Trade Balance (Imports/Exports)
          French Jan. CPI, HICP + 3-year BTAN Auctions
          Spain Trade Balance +Auctions 3-, & 5-year Bonos
          Eurozone Dec. Current Account + Net Investment Flows             
Thursday,    Feb. 18 US Weekly Jobless Claims
Philly Fed Feb. Business Outlook Survey
EIA weekly Natural Gas Report (10:30am et)
EIA weekly Petroleum Stats (11am et)
US Treasury Auctions $7B 30-year TIPS
S.F. Fed's Williams speech on eco outlook @town hall (Los Angeles 3:30pm)
US Treasury announces Refunding Plans, incl. 2-, 5- & 7-yr Notes
ECB Releases Minutes of its last MPC Meeting (Rates pushed negative)
Russian Central Bank Reserves, PPI, Retail Sales, Jan. Unemployment Rate
Canada Dec. Wholesale Sales
EU Summit -Migrants & UK terms likely talking poiunts (Brussels thru 19th)
    OVERNIGHT into US Fri. a.m. et:
         RBA Ass't Gov. Edey speaks @Australian Shareholders Ass'n Investor Forum
         South Korea Jan. PPI
         Norges central bank Gov. Olsen delivers annual address (Oslo)
         Japan Feb. Tankan Index & All Industries Activity Index
         German Jan. PPI
         UK Jan. Retail Sales & Jan. Public Finances & Borrowing
Friday,         Feb. 19 Cleveland Fed's Mester speech on Eco Outlook @Global Interdependence Center Central Banking Series (Sarasota FL 8am est)
US Jan. CPI
Baker-Hughes weekly US/No. American Rig Count (1pm et)
US Equity Monthly Options Expire (Some written over 2 years ago)
India FX Reserves + Markets Holiday
Canada Jan CPI & Dec. Retail Sales
CFTC Releases speculative net positions on Currencies, Crude, Copper, Gold, Silver, S&P 500
Eurozone Feb (Adv.) Consumer Confidence
Saturday,     Feb. 20 Nevada Democratic Caucuses
South Carolina Republican Primary
Washington Republican Caucuses
Sunday,       Feb. 21     OVERNIGHT into US Mon. a.m. et:
         RBA's Debelle speaks @KangaNews DCM Summit  (Sydney)
         New Zealand Jan. Credit Card Spending
         Japan/Nikkei Feb. Prelim PMI Manufacturing
         Markit Eurozone, French, German, Feb. Prelim Manufacturing, Services & Composite PMIs
         Italian Jan. CPI & HICP
         Swiss Jan. PPI

         UK Feb. CBI Distributive Trades Total Orders & Selling Price Trends
Monday,      Feb. 22 Chicago Fed National Activity Index
Markit PMI Feb. Manufacturing Flash Index
US Treasury Auctions $37B 3- & $30B 6-month Bills
ECB's Lautenschlager speaks (Stuttgart Germany)
Russian Public Holiday
    OVERNIGHT into US Tues. a.m. et:
          RBA Head of Payment Policy's Richards @Payments Innovation 2016 Conference (Sydney)
          Singapore Jan. CPI
          French Feb. Business Survey
          Hong Kong Jan Unemployment Rate + CPI
          German 15Q4 GDP, Exports/Imports, Gov't Spending, Capital & Construction Investment, + Private Consumption/Domestic Demand
          German Feb IFO Business Climate/Expectations
Tuesday,     Feb. 23 S&P Case Shiller Dec. Home Price Index
NAR Jan. Existing Home Sales
SIFMA T+2
Symposium (NY)
Conferenced Board's Feb. Consumer Confidence (usually lags U.M. changes)
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
Redbook weekly Sales Snaptshot
US Treasury Auctions $26B 2-year Notes
MN Fed's Kashkari speaks @St Paul Regional Economic Development Partnership Winter Meeting (Minneapolis)
Fed
Gov. Stanley Fischer speaks on monetary policy @IHS CERAWeek (Houston 8:30pm)
BoE Gov Carney appears @U.K. Parliament Cmte (London)
BoE Chief Economist Haldane lecture "The Dappled World (@U of Nottingham)
IMF's Mng Dir. Lagarde, Queen Rania Al Abdullah of Jordan, UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan speak @Global Women's Forum (Dubai to 24th)
SNB's Jordan speaks (Frankfurt Germany)
Brazil Jan. Current Account & Foreign Direct Investment
ECB's Nouy speaks @Deutsche Bank Capital Forum (London)
Nevada Republican Presidential Caucuses
Russian Holiday--Defender of the Fatherland Day
    OVERNIGHT into US Wed. a.m. et:
          Singapore 15Q4 GDP
          Japan Jan. Corporate Service Price Index, Small Business Confidence
         Aussie 15Q4 Wage Price Index, Construction Completed, & Jan. Skilled Vacancies + Westpack Feb. Consumer Sentiment
         Hong Kong 15Q4 GDP
         Swiss UBS Jan. Consumption Indicator
         French Feb Consumer Confidence
         Italian Dec. Industrial Orders/Sales
         UK Feb. BBA Loans for House Purchases, + CBI Feb. Reported Sales
Wednesday, Feb. 24 Fed's Lacker speech "Can monetary policy impact growth?" @Leaders + Legends Lecture Series hosted by Johns Hopkins Biz School (Baltimore 8am est)
Fed's Kaplan speaks on current eco conditions & monetary policy (Dallas 1:15pm)
S.L. Fed's Bullard (Hawk recently talking dovish) speaks (NY 6:30pm est)
Jan. US New Home Sales
EIA weekly Petroleum Stats
US Treasury Auctions $13B reopened 2-year FRN (11:30am est)
US Treasury Auctions $34B 5-year Notes (1pm et)
MBA weekly Mortgage/Refinance Applications
Markit Feb. PMI US Services Flash
Brazil Jan. Bank Lending & Foreign Exchange Flows
BoC's Schembri speaks to Guelph Chamber of Commerce (Ontario)
BoE's Deputy Gov for Financial Stability Cunliffe lectures @London South Bank U
South Korea Feb. Consumer Confidence
Bundesbank Chief Weidmann holds news conference (Frankfurt Germany)
    OVERNIGHT into US Thurs. a.m. et:
         New Zealand Jan. Net Migration
         Aussie 15Q4 Private & Corporate CapEx
         BoJ's Kiuchi speaks (Kagoshima, Japan)
         German GfK March Consumer Confidence, Jan. HICP, & Import Price Index
         Swiss 15Q4 Industrial Production, Industry & Construction Output, & CPI
         Eurozone Jan. M3
         Spain 15Q4 GDP
         Hong Kong Jan. Imports/Exports
         Italian Feb. Business & Consumer Confidence + Dec. Retail Sales + Jan Trade Balance
         UK 15Q4 (P) GDP, Private Consumption, Gov't Spending, Gross Fixed Capital Formation, Imports/Exports, + Dec Index of Services & Total Business Investment
         South Africa Jan PPI + 15Q4 Unemployment Rate
         Eurozone Jan. CPI + M3 Money Supply
         IIF-Institute of Int'l Finance keynotes from Chair of China's ICBC, w/speakers from HSBC, BAC/ML, Credit Agricole, China Ministry of Finance, Standard Chartered plc, China Investment Corp, JPM, PBoC Chair Zhou Xiaochuan (and others),, BoC, BIS, PIMCO Asia, EU Director of Regulation & Prudential Supervision of Financial Institutions, GE, S&P Ratings, Asian Development Bank, Citi, ICMA, IMF, Argentine Minster of Economy, GS' Gary Cohn, and more   (Shanghai-concurrent w/G20 thru 26th)
Thursday,    Feb. 25 Atlanta Fed's Lockhart opens the Banking Outlook Conference --Caution Winding Road Ahead (Atlanta 8:15am est)
USDA 92nd Agricultural Outlook Forum (Arlington VA thru 26th)
Jan US Durable Goods Orders/Shipments 
S.L. Fed's Bullard
speaks on eco & monetary policy Money Marketeers of NYU
US weekly Jobless Claims
FHFA Dec. House Price Index

EIA weekly Natural Gas Report
IMF Mng Dir. Lagarde, Woflgang Schauble, Visa CEO Scharf, BoE's Carney, GaveKal Dragonomics, UBS, Caixan Insight, China Business Netowrk, FT, MS Chief Economist, NATIXIS, JPM, Nomura, YES Bank Ltd and more speak @IIF
S.F. Fed's Williams speaks on outlook @NYU Stern Biz School (NY noon)
US Treasury Auctions $28B 7-year Notes (1pm est)
US weekly Fed Balance Sheet & Money Supply
K.C. Fed Manufacturing Index
Brazil Jan. Unemployment Rate & FGV Feb. Consumer Confidence
Russian Central Bank Reserves
    OVERNIGHT into US Fri. a.m. et:
         New Zealand Jan. Trade Balance (Imports/Exports)
         Japan Jan. Nat'l & Tokyo CPI
         Singapore 15Q4 GDP +Jan. Industrial Production
         UK GfK Feb. Consumer Confidence Survey
         China Jan. Property/House   Prices & Swift Global Paymerns
         French 15Q4 GDP + Jan. PPI & Consumer Spending
         Italy Jan. wage Inflation
         Eurozone Feb. Business, Industrial, Services, & Consumer Sentiment- Expectations
         UK Office of Nat'l Statistics discusses housing costs & inflation @BoE
Friday,         Feb. 26 US 15Q4 (Prelim) GDP (2nd guess)
US Jan Personal Income & Outlays + PCE component
US Dec Int'l Trade Deficit
Fed Gov. Powell panelist on "Language after Liftoff: Fed Communication Away from the Zero Lower Bound" and Fed Gov Brainard on "International Monetary Policy Synchronization" + ECB's Praet panelist @2016 U.S. Monetary Policy Forum (NY 10:15am est)
U.M. Final Feb. Consumer Sentiment + Expectations 
Baker-Hughes weekly US/No. America Rig Count (1pm et)
G20 FinMins & Central Bank Governors Meet (Shanghai, China thru 27th)
Irish Elections
Canada CFIB Feb. Business Barometer
Dallas Fed Jan. PCE
German Feb .CPI  + HICP
Brazil Jan Budget Balance & Debt/GDP Ratio
Saturday,   Feb 27 South Carolina Democratic Primary (Republicans were on 2/20)
G20 FinMins & Central Bankers Meeting Ends (Shanghai China)

       WEEKS AHEAD: 
03/01         RBA (Aussie) Meets
                                       03/09         BoC meets
                                       03/10         ECB Meets
                                03/15--16         FOMC Meets
    

*FOMC 2016 Voting Members:  Five governors on the FOMC ar permanent voters: Janet Yellen, Stanley Fischer, Lael Brainard, Jay Powell and Dan Tarullo.vote at every meeting. (Board Governors endure 2 vacancies that Senate refuses to confirm). Like the NY Fed pres. is, also, a permanent FOMC voting member. The rest of the voters, in 2016, are 5 of the 11 regional Fed Pres.: Loretta Mester (Cleveland), Eric Rosengren (Boston), James Bullard (St. Louis) and Esther George (Kansas City). Mester, George and Bullard are hawks, while Rosengren is considered a dove. Evans, Lockhart, Williams, and Lacker were 2015 voters, now off the voting panel at 2016 FOMC meetings. Neel Kashkari, former TARP overseer, took over Presidency of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank, replacing Kocherlakota, who wound up a short-lived leader. Kashkari won't vote in 2016.
                     

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