wall street in advance

September/October 2019  Economic Statistics
and Other Economic Influences

                Weekly Chain Store Sales*
                 Average Hourly Earnings*
                 API Weekly Gas/Oil Stockpiles Report*  **
Mortgage Applications  Data
                 EIA Weekly Report on Gas & Oil Stockpiles* (10a.m.)
                 Weekly Unemployment Report*
                  Weekly Mutual Fund Flows*
                   Natural Gas Storage Levels* (a.m.)

 *Except Holidays    ** As of 1/09         All Dates Subject to Change:
Sunday,   Sept 22     OVERNIGHT into US Mon. a.m. et:
         Aussie Sept Manufacturing, Services & Composite PMI
         Japan Nikkei Sept Manufacturing PMI, Jibun Bk Services & Composite PMI
         German Aug Import Prices
         Markit Eurozone, French, German Sept Manufacturing, Services & Composite PMI
         UK CBI Sept Selling Price & Industrial Orders/Trends
         German Buba Monthly Report
         ECB release "Domestic vs foreign factors behind fall in euro area industrial production" (10cet)
         Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout
         ECB Chief Draghi statement before Cmte Hearing on Economic & Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament (Brussels Belgium 15:00 cet)
         SIBOS in London (SWIFT -Secure Payment/Messaging System for Central Banks and biggest members of Financial Industry- London thru 26th)
Monday,  Sept 23 Canada Jul Wholsale Trade/Sales
Chicago Fed Sept National Activity Index (8:30am et)
US Markit Flash Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMI  8:45am et)
Brazil Aug Current Account, Foreign Direct Investment
NY Fed's Williams speaks at JT US Treasury Market Conference from US Treas/FRB Bd of Gov/SEC/CFTC Conference (9:50am et NY)
US Treasury Auctions $45B 3-, & $42B 6-month Bills (11:30am et)
Fed's Bullard on US Eco & Monetary Policy w/Q&A+media (Effingham IL 1pm et)
ECB's Lane dinner speech @ECB Conference on "Inflation in a Changing Economic Environment" (Frankfurt 19:00cet)
S.F. Fed's Daly speaks on "Supporting Economic Opportunity in America's Urban & Rural Communities" @Salem Community Leaders Lunch (2:30pm et Salem OR)
Japan Holiday
    OVERNIGHT into US Tues. a.m. et:
        South Korea Aug PPI
        RBNZ (New Zealand) MPC Interest Rate/QE Decision (09/24 local time)
        BoJ Gov Kuroda speaks (Osaka)
        RBNZ post-Meeting Press Conference
        German IFO Sept Current Assessment/Expectations/Outlook
        UK Aug Public Sector Borrowing, Central Gov't NCR, Public Finances
        RBA (Aussie) Gov Lowe speaks (Armidale)
        ECB's de Guindos opens ECB Money Market Contact Group Mtg (14:00cet), then closes the event (16:30cet Frankfurt)
         BoE's Gerken speaks @Bk of America Merrill Lynch 24th Annual Financial CEO Conference (London)
         BoE's Cleland panelist on "UK Payments Community" @SIBOS (London)
Tuesday,  Sept 24 Redbook weekly store sales snapsho   (8:55am et)
S&P-Case/Shilller Jul 20-city Home Price Index (9am et)
FHFA Jul House Price Index
Conference Board's Sept Consumer Confidence/Expectations (10am et)
Brazil Aug PPI, BCB Copom Meeting Minutes
Richmond Fed Sept Manufacturing Index
US Treasury Auctions $40B 2-year Notes (1pm et)
South Africa Holiday
    OVERNIGHT into US Wed. a.m. et:
         New Zealand Aug Trade Balance
         BoJ Minutes of July Policy Meeting, BoJ's Masai speaks (Mie, Japan)
         Japan Aug Corporate Services Price Index
         German GfK Oct Consumer Confidence
         ECB's Couere opens a roundtable on euro risk-free rates (Frankfurt 9:00cet)
         Credit Suisse Swiss Sept Expectations Survey
         Swiss Sept ZEW Conditions/Expectations
         So. Africa (SARB) Quarterly Bulletin
         UK Sept CBI Reported Sales/Total Distributed Sales, Aug BBA Mortgage Approvals
         ECB's Lautenschlager participates in Big Issue Debate on Cybersecurity @SIBOS (London 12:00cet)
         French Jobseekers
         ECB's Couere particpates in hearing of the Digital Agenda Cmte of German Bundestag (Berlin DE 16:00 cet)
Wed.        Sept 25 MBA weekly Mortgage/Refinance Applications (7am et)
SNB (Swiss) Quarterly Bulletin
Fed's Evans speaks on Eco outlook & monetary policy w/Q&A+media @Lake Forest Rotary Club Eco Breakfast (8am et Lake Forest IL)
US Aug. New Home Sales (10am et)
Fed Gov Brainard testifies @House FinServices SubCmte on Consumer Protection & Financial Institutions (D.C.)
Brazil Banking Lending , Fx Flows
EIA weekly Petroleum/Gasoline/Distillates Report (10:30am etl  w/e 09/20)
Atlanta FRB/Chicago Booth Biz School/Stanford Univ weekly Survey of Business Uncertainty (11am et)
US Treasury Auctions $18B reopened 2-year FRN (11:30am et)
US Treasury Auctions $41B 5-year Notes (1pm et)
    OVERNIGHT into US Wed. a.m. et:
        So., Korea BOK Financial Stability Board Meeting (estimate)
        Singapore Aug Industrial Production
        Fed's Kaplan participant @Dallas Biusiness Club Economic Update w/Q&A (Dallas TX; 7pm)
        China Q2 Current Account Balance
        German Aug Retail Sales
        Italy Jul Trade Balance
        Japan Aug Machine Tool Orders
        BoJ Gov Kuroda speaks
        Hong Kong Aug Trade Balance
        ECB Economic Bulletin (10:00 cet)
        Monetary Developments in the euro area published + Nat'l balance sheet of euro area monetary financial institutions, ex-Eurosystem
       Agricultural Bank of China presents @SIBOS on Strengthening Connections to China through ABC: Introduction of RMB Clearing, CIBM, & SH-LTN Connect Service
        Canada CFIB Sept Business Barometer
Thurs,      Sept 26 US Q2 Final GDP/PCE (8:30am et)
US Aug Int'l Trade Deficit (8:30am et)
ECB Chief Draghi welcome address (15:30cet), BoE's Cunliffe, and ECB's Enria keynotes on "Future of Stress Testing" (17:15 cet) @4th ESRB [European Systemic Risk Board) Annual Conference (Frankfurt thru 27th)
US weekly Jobless Claims/Continuing Claims
Brazil BCB Inflation Report, Nat'l Monetary Council Meets
US Q2 Final Corporate Profits
US Aug Retail & Wholesale (Adv) Inventories
Fed's Kaplan
opens Dallas Fed Conference on Trade & Immigration in No Am. w/Q&A (Dallas TX 9:30am et)
BoE Gov Carney on Financial Services (Frankfurt Germany 9:45am et)
Fed's Bullard opens "Banking and the Economy: A Forum for Minorities in Banking" (10am et St Louis MO FRB thru 27th)
NAR Aug Pending Home Sales
EIA weekly Natural Gas Report  (10:30am et/ w/e 09/20)
K.C. Fed Sept Manufacturing Index  (11am et)
US Treasury Auctions 4-, & 8-week Bills (11:30am et; value not available at post)
Fed's Daly opens "Fed Listens: San Francisco" event (11:45am et; San Francisco CA)
Fed Gov Clarida "The Federal Reserve's Review of its Monetary Policy Strategy, Tools & Communication Practices" @FRB San Francisco (11:45am streamed here)
US Treasury Auctions $32B 7-year Notes (1pm et)
Bk of Mexico MPC Rate Decision
MN Fed's Kashkari
@Town Hall (Billings MT 2pm et)
Fed weekly Balance Sheet & US weekly Money Supply (4:30pm et)
    OVERNIGHT into US Fri. a.m. et:
        UK GfK Sept Consumer Confidence

        Japan/Tokyo Sept CPI 
        China Aug Industrial Profits
        French Aug Consumer Spending, PPI, CPI
        Italy Sept PPI, CPI, Business & Consumer Confidence
        UK Sept Nationwide House Price Index
        Eurozone Sept Business, Industrial, Services, Consumer Confidence
        ECB's de Guindos chairs panel "Experiences with macroprudential policies" @4th ESRB Annual Conference (9:15 cet)
        BoE's Saunders speaks @Barnsley & Rotherham Chamber of Commerce & Institute of Chartered Accountants Barnelsy
Friday,     Sept 27 US Aug Durable Goods--Capital Goods Orders/Shipments (8:30am et)
Fed V.Chair Quarles on "Macroprudential Regulation" @Georgetown Unv Law Center's "Law & Macroeconomics" Conference (D.C. 8:30am et streamed here)
US Aug Personal Income/Spending/PCE
U.M. (final) Sept Consumer Sentiment/Outlook  (10am et)
Fed's Harker on "Strategies for Promoting the Fed's Independence & Accountability"  @Shadow Open Market Cmte Fall 2019 Mtg" (NY noon et)
Baker-Hughes weekly US/North American Rig Count (1pm et;  w/e 09/20)
USDA Farm Prices (2pm et)
    OVERNIGHT into US Sat. a.m. et:
         India Q2 Current Account
         Canada Jul Budget Balance
Saturday, Sept 28

Sunday,   Sept 29 ECB's Lautenschlager dinner speech @13th Luxembourg Expert Forum on the Development of Union Law organized by ECJ (EU Court of Justice, Luxembourg  20:00cet)
Rosh Hashana, the Jewish New Year starts at Sundown (thru 10/01 at sundown)
    OVERNIGHT into US Mon. a.m. et:
        New Zealand Aug Building Permits,ANZ Business Confidence
        South Korea Aug Industrial Production, Service Sector Output, Retail Sales
        Japan Aug Industrial Production, Retail Trade (Sales)
        BoJ Summary of Opinions (09/19 mtg), Official Fx Reserves
        Aussie TD Securities Sept Inflation, ANZ Business Activity/Outlook/Confidence 
        German Aug Retail Sales     
        Lloyds Sept UK Business Barometer
        China Sept (official) Manufacturing/non-Manufacturing/Composite PMI
        Aussie Aug Private Sector Credit, Housing Credit
        China Caixin Sept Manufacturing PMI
        Singapore Bank Lending
        RBI (India) Monetary & Credit Information Review
        UK Sept Nationwide House Price Index
        Japan Jul Vehicle Production, Aug Construction Orders, Housing Starts
        Wards Sept Total US Vehicle Sales
        German Sept Unemployment Claims/Change, Aug Retail Sales,
Import Price Index
        South Afridca Aug Private Sector Credit
        UK Q2 (F) GDP, Aug Consumer Credit, Mortgage Approvals, Business Investment
        Italy Aug Unemployment Rate/Change
       Eurozone Aug Unemployment Rate/Change
        Eurozone, French, German, Italian, Spanish CPI & HICP
        India Aug Federal Fiscal Deficit
Monday,  Sept 30 Brazil Q4 Long Term Interest Rate Oulook, Sept IGP-M Inflation Index, BCB Readout
Canada Aug Industrial Product & Raw Materials Prices
Brazil Aug Budget Balance, Debt-to-GEP Ratio
Chicago Sept PMI (9:45am et)
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey (10:30am et)
US Treasury Auctions $45B 3-, & $42B 6-month Bills (11:30am et)
ECB's Lane speaks @UCLA's MAE Distinguished Speaker Series (L. A. CA 6pm)
    OVERNIGHT into US Tues. a.m. et:
        Aussie AiG Sept Performance of Manufacturing Index, CBA Sept PMI
        South Korea Sept CPI, Trade BAlance
        Japan Aug Jobless Rate, Job-to-Applicant Ratio, Tankan Indices/Outlooks
        Aussie CoreLogic Sept House Price Index
        Japan Nikkei Sept Manufacturing PMI
        Singapore URA Qtr Property Index
        Aussie Aug Building Approvals, RBA Sept Commodity Index
        RBA MPC Rate Decision/Cash Rate Target (Oct 01 local time)
        Japan Sept Vehicle Sales
        India Nikkei Sept Manufacturing PMI
        Chicago Fed's Evans on monetary policy w/Q&A @GIC Central Banking Series: "Monetary & economic policies on both sides of the Atlantic" (Frankfurt DE 4:15am et)
        Swiss Aug Retail Sales, Sept Manufacturing PMI
        Eurozone, France, Germany, Italy, Spain Sept Manufacturing PMI
        Eurozone Sept CPI
        South Africa SARB Monetary Policy Review

        RBA Gov Lowe speaks (Melbourne)         
        China's National Day--70th Anniversary since China Republic Founded-kicks off Golden Week (China on vacation until next week)
Tuesday   Oct 01 US Government New Fiscal Year Begins
Nobel Prize Winners Announced throughout the week

China/Hong Kong Holiday--National Day (Golden Week Starts)
Canada Jul GDP, RBC Sept Manufacturing PMI
South Africa SEpt Total Vehicle Sales
Brazil Aug Industrial Production, PPI
Fed V Chair Clarida remarks @FRB "Nontraditional Data, Machine Learning & Natural Language Processing in Macroeconomics" (8:50am et; FRB D.C. thru 2nd)
Redbook weekly store sales snapshot (8:55am et)
Fed's Bullard (9:15am et) welcome, (new) Fed Gov Bowman keynotes (9:30am et), FDIC Chair McWilliams (11:30am et) @Community Banking in the 21st Century Research & Policy Conference (St. Louis FRB )
US Markit Sept Manufacturing PMI (9:45am et)
US Sept ISM Mnftrg Index/Orders/Shipments/Employment/Prices Paid (10am et)
US Aug. Construction Spending
Mexico Sept Markit Manufacturing PMI
Brazil Sept Trade Balance
ECB's Draghi's Official Reception into the Academy of Athens (Athens Greece 19:45)
    OVERNIGHT into US Wed. a.m. et:
        New Zealand QV Sept House Prices
        UK BRC Sept Shop Price Index
        Japan Sept Consumer Confidence
        Swiss Sept CPI, HICP
        Spain Unemployment/Change
        Euro Area Qtrly Balance of Payments & Int'l Investment Position (10:00 cet)
        Hong Kong Aug Retail Sales, Fx Reserves
        UK Markit/CIPS Sept UK Construction PMI          
Wed.,       Oct 02 US Sept Motor Vehicle Sales (GM & F may announce Q3 Sales)
MBA Mortgage/Refinance Apps (7am et)
ADP Sept Private Sector Employment Report (8:15am et)
89th Annual Securities Traders Ass'n Market Structure Conference (NY)
Singapore Manufacturing PMI
Fed's Harker Day 2 Keynote @St Louis FRB Community Banking Research Conf (9am)
EIA weekly Petroleum/Gasoline/Distillates Report (10:30am et; w/e 09/27)
NY Fed's Williams participant @UCal San Diego Economics Roundtable Lecture Series (10:50am et La Jolla CA)
    OVERNIGHT into US Thurs. a.m. et:
        Aussie AiG Sept Performance of Service Index, CBA Sep Services/Composite PMI
        New Zealand ANZ Sept Commodity Prices
        Japan/Jibun Bank Sept Services/Composite PMI
        Aussie Aug Trade Balance
        Fed's Evans on monetary policy w/Q&A & ECB's de Guindos @Global Interdependence Ctr Central Banking Series Madrid (Spain 3:45am et)
       South Africa Sept Standard Bank PMI
       Eurozone, France, Germany, Italy Markit Sept Services/Composite PMI
       UK Markit/CIPS Sept Services/Composite PMI
       Eurozone Aug Retail Sales, PPI
       ECB's Enria
speaks @Annual Supervisory Conference of the Financial Market Authority (Vienna Austria 9:30 cet)       
Thurs.      Oct 03 Challenger US Sept Job-Cuts Report (7:30am et)
Brazil Markit Sept Services/Composite PMI
US weekly Jobless Claims/Continuing Claims (8:30am et)
Fed V.Chair Quarles on "The Financial Stability Board at 10 Years" @European Banking Federation's European Banking Summit 2019 (8:30am et  Brussels Belgium)
US Sept Services PMI (9:45am et)
US Aug Factory Orders (10am et)
US non-Manufacturing ISM Index
US Aug (F) Durable Goods/Capital Goods Orders/Shipments

EIA weekly Natural Gas Report (10:30am et; w/e 09/27)
US Treasury Refunding Annoubcement (11am et)
US Treasury Auctions 4-, & 8-week Bills (11:30am et)
Fed's Mester panelist on implications for monetary policy, + Janet Yellen, Ben Bernanke, Paul Krugman, Jared Bernstein, Olivier Blanchard, David Wessel @Hutchins Ctr of Brookings Institution "What's (not) Up with Inflation?" (D.C.)
Fed V.Chair Clarida on "Outlook for the Economy & Monetary Policy" @WSJ Future of Markets Conference (6:35pm NY)
Fed weekly Balance Sheet (no more drawdowns) & weekly Money Supply (4:30pm et)
French-American Chamber of Commerce Foundation Gala (NY)
Holidays in China, South Korea & Germany
    OVERNIGHT into US Fri. a.m. et:
        RBA (Aussie) Financial Stability Review,
Aug Retail Sales, RBA's Ellis speaks (Geelong), HIA New Home Sales
        India Nikkei Services PMI
        RBI (India) MPC Interest Rate Decision
        French Gov't Aug Budget Balance
        German Markit Sept Construction PMI
        UK Sept New Car Registrations, Q2 Housing Equity Withdrawal
Friday,     Oct 04 US September Unemployment Report/Change/Wages/Participation (8:30am et)
US Aug Int'l Trade Deficit
Canada Aug Int'l Merchandise Trade Balance, Ivey Sept PMI
Fed's Rosengren opens (8:30am et) FRB of Boston 63rd Economic Conference: "A House Divided Geographic Disparities in  21st Century America,"  (Boston FRB thru 5th)
Fed's Bostic fireside chat on economy w/Q&A @40th Tulane Business Forum: Curating the Customer Experience (New Orleans LA 10:25am et)
Baker-Hughes weekly US/North American Rig Count (1pm et  w/e 09/27)
Fed's Powell opens @Fed Listens:"Perspectives on Maximum Employment & Price Stability" (2pm), then turns mic over to Fed Gov Brainard on "Gauging Maximum Employment in a changing Labor Market" (2:10pm et)
Fed Vice Chair Quarles panel: "The Importance of Price Stability & Low Inflation in Today's Economy" (4pm et)  @Fed Listens:"Perspectives on Maximum Employment & Price Stability" @FRB (D.C.)
Saturday, Oct 05 China Golden Week Continues
      WEEKS AHEAD: 10/09    Fed Minutes
of Sept 18 Ended Meeting (2pm et)
                                      10/24    ECB MPC Meets (a week pre-Brexit)
                                                   Norges (Norway) MPC Meets
                                10/29--30   FOMC 2-day Meeting
                                      10/30    FOMC Rate Decision

                                                   BoC (Canada) MPC Rate Decision
                                      10/31    BoJ MPC Meets

*FOMC 2019 Voting Members:  Chairperson Jerome Powell, as of 02/05/18, and ALL members of the FOMC Board of Governors are permanent voters: That includes Randall Quarles, & Lael Brainard, Richard Clarida, Gov Bowman, (Senate confirmed 09/12/19) plus New York Fed Pres, currently John Williams (Formerly of the San Francisco Fed) who replaced William Dudley, who retired from the bank on June 15, 2018.:New, revolving Regional Fed Bank leaders who are voters for 2018: Atlanta Fed Pres. Raphael Bostic, new in August 2017 (replaced Dennis Lockhart), former McKinsey exec Thomas Barkin, who assumed the title of Pres of Richmond Fed on 01/01/18. San Francisco Fed named Mary Daly Pres/CEO as of 10/1/2018, who'll be a voter until Feb. The hole in the San Francisco Fed's hierarchy resulted in Esther George--a very vocal hawk--becoming a voting member of the FOMC, but she steps aside as of Mary Daly's swearing in, and returns as a voter in Feb 2019. Cleveland Fed's voter, Loretta Mester, a hawk, who wants rates raised at a quicker pace because she believes the Fed has, already, fallen behind the curve.  Richmond wound up with an opening, after Jeff Lacker resigned, in early April 2017, when it became known he'd (unintentionally) leaked sensitive FOMC discussions to Medley Advisors. Richmond operated with an Interim Pres, Mark L Mullinix, while searching for its new leader, Thomas Barkin, who arrived Jan 1st 2018.. Dissenters at the Dec. 2017 Meeting, Neel Kashkari & Charles Evans, are no longer voters in 2018.
               * HICP used in Europe, means Harmonized Index of Consumer Price