wall street in advance

February 2020  Economic Statistics
and Other Economic Influences

                Weekly Chain Store Sales*
                 Average Hourly Earnings*
                 API Weekly Gas/Oil Stockpiles Report*  **
Mortgage Applications  Data
                 EIA Weekly Report on Gas & Oil Stockpiles* (10a.m.)
                 Weekly Unemployment Report*
                  Weekly Mutual Fund Flows*
                   Natural Gas Storage Levels* (a.m.)

 *Except Holidays    ** As of 1/09         All Dates Subject to Change:
Sunday,    Feb 02 NASS--Nat'l Ass'n of Secretaries of State Meet  (D.C.)
    OVERNIGHT into US Mon. a.m. et:
         Aussie AiG Jan Performance of Mnftg Index, CBA Mnftg PMI. CoreLogic HPI, TD Securities Inflation, ANZ Job Ads, Dec Building Approvals
         So Kore aNikkei Jan Mnftg Index
         Japan Nikkei Jan Mnftg PMI
         China Dec/YTD Industrial Profits, Caixin Jan Mnftg PMI
         India Nikkei/Markit Mnftg PMI
         Japan Jan Vehicle Sales
         Aussie RBA Jan Commodity Index
         Swiss Jan Mnftg PMI, rocure.ch Jan PMI
         Hong Kong Q4 GDP
         Eurozone, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Markit Jan Mnftg PMI

         Singapore Jan Mnftg PMI
         So. Africa Jan. Mnftg PMI, Total Vehicle Sales
         Wards US Jan 2020 Vehicle Sales
         Brazil Markit Jan Mnftg PMI
         UK Markit Jan Mnftg PMI
Monday,   Feb 03 Canada RBC Jan Mnftg PMI   (9:30am et)
US Markit Jan Manufacturing PMI (9:45am et)
US Jan ISM Manufacturing Index/Employment/Prices Paid/New Orders  (10am et)
US Dec Construction Spending
US Treasury Auctions $45B 3-, & $39B 6-month Bills  (11am)
ECB Chief Lagarde @New Year's Reception of Deutsche Borse AG (Eschborn DE 19:00 cet)
US Senior Loan Officer Survey (2pm et)
Brazil Jan Trade Balance
Fed's Bostic on Big Data, AI, Machine Learning (4pm et)
Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus (evening)
Fed Gov Brainard on Payment Innovation @Symposium on the future of Payments (Stanford CA  4:10pm)
     OVERNIGHT into US Tues. a.m. et)
         New Zealand Dec Building Permits
         RBA MPC Announces Feb Target Cash Interest Rate
         French Dec Budget Balance
         Spain Unemployment Rate
         Hong Kong Dec Retail Sales
         Italy CPI/HICP
         Eurozone Dec PPI
         UK Markit/CIPS Jan Construction PMI
         Brazil Dec Industrial Production
Tuesday   Feb 04 US Dec (F) Durable/Capital Goods
Redbook weekly store sales snapshot
US Dec Factory Orders
Mexican Jan Mnftg PMI
Pres Trump State of the Union Address to Jt Session of Congress
    OVERNIGHT into US Wed. a.m. et:

         New Zealand QV Jan House Prices, Q4 Unemployment Rate/Change/Earnings/ Participation/Overtime/Part-/Full-time, ANZ Commodity Index, GlobalDairy Price Index
         Aussie CBA Jan Services/Composite PMI, AiG Jan Performance of Construction Index
         RBA Chart Pack Released
         Japan Jibun Bank Jan Services/Composite PMI
         Hong Kong Jan Mnftg PMI
         RBA Gov Lowe speaks (Sydney)
         BoJ's Wakatabe speaks (Ehine)
         China Jan Caixin Services/Composite PMI
         India Nikkei Jan Services PMI
         Swiss SECO Q1 Consumer Confidence
         So Africa Standard Bank Jan PMI
         Eurozone, France, Italy, Germany Markit Jan Services/Composite PMI
         ECB's de Guindos opens ECB Conference on "Marcoprudential stress testing & financial stability"
former FOMC Gov Kohn speaker (Frankfurt;  thru 6th; 9:10cet)
         UK Jan New Car Registrations Markit/CIPS Services/Composite PMI, Official Reserves
         ECB Eco Bulletin: Breaking the "chain effect" of tariffs--foregin trade zones in time of protectionism
         ECB pre-release Household wealth & consumption in euro area  (10:00 cet)
         Eurozone Dec Retail Sales
         ECB's Lane discusses "Berliner Gespach zum Finanplatz Frankfurt (Berlin DE)
Wed.        Feb 05 MBA weekly Mortgage/Refinance Applications (7am; w/e 01/31)
Brazil Markit Jan Services/Composite PMI
US ADP Jan Private-Sector Employment Estimates (8:15am et)
US Dec Trade Balance (8:30am et)
Canada Dec Int'l Merchandise Trade
US Jan Markit non-Manufacturing/Composite PMI
US Jan non-Manufacturing ISM Index
EIA weekly Petroleum/Gasoline.Distillates/Refinery Report
(10:30am et; w/e 01/31)
Bk of Canada's Wilkins speaks (Toronto 12:30 pm)
US Senate likely to vote to dismiss the Articles of Impeachment against Trump
Central Bank of Brazil MPC Interet Rate Decision, Fx Flows
    OVERNIGHT into US Thurs. a.m. et:
        Aussie Q4 NAB Business Confidence, Dec Trade Balance, Retail Sales

        BoJ's Masai speaks (Nara), Foreign Investments in Japanese Stocks/Bonds
        China Jan Trade Balance
        India Central Bank MPC Intereset Rate Decision/Reverse REPO Rate

        Swiss Q4 Real Estate Bubble Index
        German Dec. Factory Orders, Markit Jan Constrcution PMI
        ECB Chief Lagarde opens Qtrly ECON hearing before EU Parliament (Brussels)
        ECB's de Guindos @XXVIth Santander Iberian Conference (Madrid Spain)
        ECB Publishes Economic Bulletin/Economic Forecasts
Thurs.      Feb 06 US Challenger Jan Job Cuts
US weekly Initial Jobless Claims/Continuing Claims
US Q4 Non-Farm Productivity, Unit Labor Costs
EIA weekly Natural Gas Report  (10:30am;  w/e 01/31)
US Treasury Auctions 4-, & 8-week Bills  (value not announced at post)
Fed V.Ch. for Supervision Quarles on Monetary Policy & Eco Outlook   @NYU Money Marketeers (5:30pm et)
Holiday in New Zealand
   OVERNIGHT into US Fri. a.m. et:
      Aussie AiG Jan Performance of Service Index
      Japan Dec Labor Cash Earnings, Household Spending     
      RBNZ (New Zealand) Inflation Expectation
      Aussie Jan Foreign Reserves
      German Dec Industrial Production, Trade Balance, Current Account
      French Q4 non-Farm Payrolls, Dec Industrial Production/Trade Balance, Current Account
      UK Halifax Jan House Price Index
      Italy Dec Retail Sales
      Meixco Jan CPI
Friday,     Feb 07 US Jan Unemployment Rate/Change/Participation/Earnings/Secctor Breakdown
BLS issues Benchmark Revisions to the Unemployment Rates Previously Announced
Canada Jan Unemployment Rate/Change/Participation/Part-/Full-time
US Dec (F) Wholesale Inventories
Canada Ivey Jan PMI
Fed Submits July 2019 Monetary Policy Report to Senate Cmte on Banking, Housing, Urban Affairs & to House Cmte on FinServices (11am et)
Baker-Hughes weekly US/North American Rig Count (1pm et; w/e 01/31)
US Dec Consumer Credit (3pm et)
Democratic Presidential Candidates Debate (NH on ABC TV [DIS])
Saturday, Feb 08
Sunday,    Feb 09     OVERNIGHT into US Mon. a.m. et:
        China Jan New Yuan Loans/Aggregate Financing, Foreign Direct Investment

        New Zealand REINZ Jan House Sales
        Japan Jan Bank Lending, Housing Loans, Dec Trade Balance, Current Account
        China Jan CPI & PPI
        Swiss Jan Unemployment Rate, CPI/HICP
        Italian Dec Industrial Production
        Eurozone Sentix Feb Investor Confidence
Monday,   Feb 10 MBA Q4 Mortgage Delinquencies & Foreclosures
Fed Gov Bowman on "Empowering Community Banks" @ABA NCCB Conference (8:15am et  Kissimmee, FL)
Canada Jan Housing Starts/Dec Building Permits
Conference Board's US Jan Employment Trends Index
US Treasury Auctions $45B 3-, & $39B 6-month Bills (11:30am et)
Philly Fed's Harker on Economic Outlook @Lyons CEEE Economic Forecast (Univ. of Delaware, Newark DE 2pm edt)
    OVERNIGHT into US Tues. a.m. et:
         New Zealand Gov't 6-month Financial Statements, ANZ Jan Truckometer
         Aussie Dec Home Loans, Jan NAB Business Confidence/Conditions
         UK BRC Jan Like-for-Like Sales
         UK Dec/Q4 (P) NIESR GDP, Dec Industrial & Manufacturing Production, Construction Output, Dec Trade Balance, Q4 Gross Fixed Capital Formation. Gov't Spending, Dec Index of Services, Industrial + Manufacturing Production, Business Investment, Private Consumption
        So. Africa Q4 Unemployment Rate, Dec Manufacturing Production
        Russia Dec Trade Balance
        Mexico Dec Industrial Production
        ECB Chief Lagarde introduces ECB Annual Report 2018 @EU Parliament (Strasbourg FR 15:00 cet;  02/11 local time)
        NFIB (Jan) Small Business Optimism Index (6am et)
        Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes
Tuesday,  Feb 11 Redbook weekly store sales snapshot
New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Hopefuls Primary
FOMC Chief Powell SemiAnnual Testimony on Monetary Policy & the Economy @US House FinServices Cmte (10am et)
JOLTS (Dec Job Tunrover & Openings 10:30am et)
US Treasury Auctions $38B 3-year Notes  (11am et)
NY FRB relesaes Q4 Household Debt & Credit Report (+blog analysis)
BoE's Haskel Lecture @Univ of Nottingham
ECB's Lane keynotes Finanzmartklausur 2020 by Wirtschaftsrat der CDU e.V. (Berlin)
US WASDE Report (noon et)
Fed Gov for Bank Supervision Quarles on Bank Supervision for Yale Law School Dean's Lecture (12:15pm;  New Haven, CT)
MN Fed's Kashkari Town Hall w/Q&A hosted by U of MT Bureau of Business & Economic Research (BBER) Economic Outlook Seminar (2:15pm et   Kalispell Montana)
Japan Holiday (02/11 local time)
     OVERNIGHT into US Wed. a.m. et:
         RBA's Heath speaks (Sydney)
         New Zealand Jan Card/Electronic Card   Spending
         So. Korean Jan Unemployment Rate
         RBNZ (New Zealand) MPC sets Official Cash Interest Rate, Press Conference  (02/12 local time)
         Singapore Dec Retail Sales
         German Jan Wholesale Price Index
         Japan Jan Machine Tool Orders
         S.F. Fed's Daly & ECB's Lane fireside chat @FT's 5th European Financial Forum (Dublin Ireland 10:40cet)
         Lords EU Financial Affairs sub-cmte on Financial Services post-Brexit (Parliament)
         Eurozone Dec Industrial Production        
         OPEC Monthly Report
(6am et)
         India Dec Industrial Production & Manufaturing Output, Jan CPI
Wed.        Feb 12 MBA weekly Mortgage/Refinance Apps (7am;  w/e 02/07)
Brazil Dec Retail Sales, Fx Flows
UK Autumn Budget
Fed's Harker on Economic Outlook  @Economic Forecast Breakfast of The Main Line Foundation w/Q&A (Malvern PA 8:30am edt)
FOMC Chief Powell Testimony on Monetary Policy & Economy @US Senate Cmte on Banking, Housing & Urban Affairs  (10am et)
EIA weekly Petroleum/Gasoline/Distillate/Refinery Report (10:30a.m.; w/e 02/07)
US Treasury Auctions $27B 10-year Notes (1pm et)
US Treasury Jan Budget Statement (2pm et)
Fed's Kaplan discusses national & global issues w/former NY FRB Pres/CEO Wmm Dudley (7:30pm et @Dallas FRB)
    OVERNIGHT into US Thurs. a.m. et:
        Japan Jan Corporate Goods Price Index (PPI)
        UK RICS Jan House Price Balance
        RBA Gov Lowe Panelist
        China Foreign Direct Investment
        French Q4 Unemployment Rate
        German Jan CPI, HICP
        South Africa Dec Mining/Gold Production
        Russia Fx Reserves
        ECB's Lane keynotes "Gold Medal of Honourary Patronage Awards Ceremony" @Trinity College Philosophical Society (13:00 cet  Dublin)
Thurs,      Feb 13 US Annual Benchmark Revision to PPI
US Jan CPI/Core CPI (8:30am et)
US weekly Jobless Claims/Continuing Claims
NY Fed hosts "Youth Poverty in Puerto Rico and the US Virgina Islands:Updates & Policy Recommendations  (San Juan PR)
EIA weekly Natural Gas Report  (10:30am;  w/e 02/07)
US Treasury Auctions 4-, & 8-week Bills (11:30am et;  values not available at post)
US Treasury Auctions $19B 30-year Notes (1pm et)
ECB's Panetta panelist @Louiss [sic] Univ. (Rome Italy 18:00 cet)
Mexican Central Bank sets Feb Overnight Interest Rate
ECB's Lane lectures @Academy Discourse via Royal Irish Academy (Dublin 19:00 cet)
NY Fed's Williams moderated discussion @NY Bankers Ass'n (5:30pm est; NY)
    OVERNIGHT into US Fri. a.m. et:
         Japan Jan PPI,
Dec Tertiary Industry Index
         So. Korea Jan Import/Export Price Indexes
         New Zealand Jan PMI/FPI
         India Jan WPI Food/Fuel/Manufacturing Inflation
         German Q4 GDP
         Swiss Jan PPI & IPPI (Import Prices)
         Spain Jan CPI/HICP
         Italy Dec Trade Balance
         Eurozone Q4 GDP, Unemployment Report/Change, Dec Trade Balance
         India Bank Loan & Deposit Growth, Fx Reserves, Trade Balance
         Japan Dpty Gov Amamiya speaks
Friday,     Feb 14 US Jan (adv) Retail Sales (8:30am et)
US Jan Import & Export Price Indexes
Canada Jan Existing Home Sales (9am et)
US Jan Industrial/Manufacturing Production/Capacity Utilization
US Dec Business & Retail Inventories

U.M. Feb (P) Consumer Sentiment/Expectations (10am et)
Fed's Mester keynotes GIC 4th Financial Literacy Day: Understanding Global Markets & Finance (11:45am et; Sarasota FL) Sen Kent Conrad speaks on Dangerous Deficits (10:15am),  Nick Colas (10:15am et), David Kotok (12:30pm)
Baker-Hughes US/North America Rig Count (1pm et;  w/e 02/07)
Saturday, Feb 15
Monday, 02/17 US Markets Closed for Washington's Birthday--Presidents' Day
          WEEKS AHEAD:
 02/27    Chicago Fed's Evans keynotes @GIC Member Event (Mexico City 11:30am et)
                                          03/04     ECB MPC Meeting + Press Conference
                                    03/17--18    FOMC Meets
                                    03/18--19    BoJ Meets
                                          03/26     BoE MPC Meets

*FOMC 2019 Voting Members:  Chairperson Jerome Powell, as of 02/05/18, and ALL members of the FOMC Board of Governors are permanent voters: That includes Randall Quarles, & Lael Brainard, Richard Clarida, Gov Bowman, (Senate confirmed 09/12/19) plus New York Fed Pres, currently John Williams (Formerly of the San Francisco Fed) who replaced William Dudley, who retired from the bank on June 15, 2018.:New, revolving Regional Fed Bank leaders who are voters for 2018: Atlanta Fed Pres. Raphael Bostic, new in August 2017 (replaced Dennis Lockhart), former McKinsey exec Thomas Barkin, who assumed the title of Pres of Richmond Fed on 01/01/18. San Francisco Fed named Mary Daly Pres/CEO as of 10/1/2018, who'll be a voter until Feb. The hole in the San Francisco Fed's hierarchy resulted in Esther George--a very vocal hawk--becoming a voting member of the FOMC, but she steps aside as of Mary Daly's swearing in, and returns as a voter in Feb 2019. Cleveland Fed's voter, Loretta Mester, a hawk, who wants rates raised at a quicker pace because she believes the Fed has, already, fallen behind the curve.  Richmond wound up with an opening, after Jeff Lacker resigned, in early April 2017, when it became known he'd (unintentionally) leaked sensitive FOMC discussions to Medley Advisors. Richmond operated with an Interim Pres, Mark L Mullinix, while searching for its new leader, Thomas Barkin, who arrived Jan 1st 2018.. Dissenters at the Dec. 2017 Meeting, Neel Kashkari & Charles Evans, are no longer voters in 2018.
               * HICP used in Europe, means Harmonized Index of Consumer Price