Here's What You missed LAST Week Because You're Not a Subscriber
Here's What You missed LAST Week Because You're
Not a Subscriber
SHOULD SEE STEADY PROFIT-TAKING
January 30—February 3, 2012 Spoiler Alert: Not on the calendar but sure to arrive,
previews of the coming Super Bowl ads. If you enjoy seeing your Super Bowl ads in their
entirety, when run, then you probably should avoid watching ANY financial TV this week. On
the other hand, if you’re not going to DVR the game, and want to be able to sneak out
to the bathroom or kitchen, a few times during the game, you’ll want to watch the
"previews" of the coming Super Bowl ads, so you’re sure not to miss
anything while building in breaks. This is no idle conversation since, except for 2008,
winners of the Super Bowl have had a hi 80% correlation, when an original NFC teams wins.
Relative strength rose to 70, last Thursday, when readings above 58 have been the
inflection point for turn downs. VIX is ridiculously low. But before the bears get too
frisky, one must ask whether a deal with Greek creditors will be a sell the news
situation, or whether the markets have one more global fling to the upside when a Greek
deal is finalized. I think that’s the crux of the question because, last Friday,
heading into this week’s EU Summit, Olli Rehn, the European Union’s economic and
monetary affairs commissioner, said a deal could be reached soon, possibly by the weekend.
He made the remarks at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland and that, alone, may
have been sufficient to keep stops from correcting.
It feels like it’s high time stocks did correct—the first bout of serious profit
taking this year, imminent. But again, sellers may be holding off, hoping for one last
run-up to celebrate a formal announcement of a Greek deal. Honestly, the coming Greek deal
has been as well telegraphed as the possibility of a Greek, outright, default, which
should seriously limit how much enthusiasm traders will be able to summon when the details
are, ultimately, announced.
Ironically, the formal Greek deal announcement could, easily, wind up clashing with
Friday’s January Employment Report and the Annual Revisions to not just the monthly
but the annual report offered in February 2011. Last year’s Annual revised the prior
Unemployment numbers to a much worse situation than even the ugly 2009 & 2010 reports
implied—demonstrating that the economy had been in even worse shape than the reports
belied. There’s a possibility the same is true with Friday’s revisions. It
wasn’t until last Thursday’s weekly claims data that unemployment applications
took a jump up. I suspect there’s more of that to come. Not only are financial firms
still laying off people but retailers, also, in January, start cutting the excess
employees hired for the holiday season, and will finish, if not by the end of January,
then early in February. Friday’s report could demonstrate concrete evidence of that
going on.
Other highlights from the Economic Calendar include Wednesday’s Jan. Motor Vehicle
Sales but, even with recovering sales, Ford’s earnings report, last week, proved,
better sales don’t always translate into better profits. Here, I found the end of
year and New Year promotions not only bigger than usual but true, even, for the Japanese
companies that used to be able to shun promotions. GM is lucky the Volt isn’t its top
selling car because that model spent a good part out the month under a cloud, after the
battery in a Volt caught fire after an accident.
FOMC Chief will testify, Thursday, before the House, discussing his semi-annual
"State of the US Economy" report, formerly the Humphrey-Hawkins report. If you
bother to read the actual minutes of the FOMC meetings, released 3 weeks after each
meeting, or even just processed the recent lengthening of the time before the FOMC expects
to have to raise rates, it’s clear that Bernanke’s assessment of the economy is
weaker than the stock market, so far in the New Year, makes it seem, given the
enthusiastic rally, until late last week. Furthermore, Bernanke will discuss, in the
House, budgetary issues, and is sure to point out the unsustainable path the US Budget
Deficit remains on—the troops pulled out of Iraq about the only basis upon which
relative savings can be projected with any certainty—at least until the automatic
budget cuts are enacted, in the 2013 budget year, cuts many believe will never happen,
anyway. And though Bernanke & his FOMC Committee members mentioned additional actions
they could take to spur the economy, if it worsened, Bernanke is likely to say, as he has
in the past, that the Central Bank has done most of what it can do, effectively, and
Congress must do the rest.
Retail Chain Store Sales for January, and in many cases, for the quarter which ends
January 31st, may show growth in units sold without much growth in revenues.
Additionally, margins are likely to be soft. Evidently, 40% off is the new 20% off of the
past, and 70% off has replaced what used to be half price sales. Often, to get to 70% off,
retailers will cut prices by 40 or 50%, then offer an additional 40 or 50% off the lowest
marked price. Don’t ask if I think Ron Johnson will succeed at JC Penney, relying on
3, standing tiers of discounts, because that would be too silly a question. Macy*s Terry
Lundgren is destroying retail for all other chains, and the time for JCP to have seized
the day was back when Lundgren was integrating his May Department Store purchase, and
changing the names of its chains, like Robinson’s, to the Macy*s name, which caused
May’s customers to go anywhere but to Macy*s. Only last year, M began winning back
those customers from May & Robinson’s worn down by Macy*s near daily "One
Day Sale," "WOW Pass," and "Every Day Low Price," which
isn’t and wasn’t, ever, an everyday low price, since it had long built in the
first 15% discount Macy*s customers get when using their Red Card, or M’s
Bloomingdale’s customers get, on nearly every item purchased, when they use the house
credit card at either M division. Were those customers to run side by side price checks
with identical merchandise carried by Nordstrom, they’d realize M builds in the first
discount into the original retail price on the hang tag. Likewise, Ann Taylor has done the
same since the original price of its merchandise but, with all its merchandise made for
its stores, it’s impossible to run side by side comparisons as one can do with 3rd
party branded merchandise at both JWN and M.
The chains that ran the most successful clearance in sales in January, that saw the
greatest traffic, are perennial winners Express and Limited’s (LMT) Victoria’s
Secret, which includes Body & Bath Works as well as Pink and Henri Bendel. Problem is,
both had strong year ago comps, as well, LTD’s +24%, and EXPR +12%. EXPR, which went
public for 2008, obviously has the easier of the comps to top, the number of stores added
to the comp base likely to decide whether either can top year ago comps. Despite its
easier comps, EXPR’s problem is opening many new men’s stores, and they lack the
outstanding traction of its ladies stores, which will drag on comps, a bit. And while
Macy*s has won back the customers alienated by the name change of its acquired stores, M
makes little on its apparel, relying, to a large extent, on home, table top, &
furniture profits to carry the rest of the store, since those are categories where it has
much less competition. Saks 5th Avenue, and Neiman Marcus largely avoid
furniture, and lightly stock their home departments with, mainly, hostess and gift items
in departments that rarely occupy must more than a few hundred square feet. Nordstrom
doesn’t bother, at all.
As for Earnings, this week promises a flood of S&P companies reporting but many have
already moved on as large cap tech earnings wind down—Amazon Tuesday and Qualcomm
Wednesday, glaring exceptions. The Earnings Calendar and Events share healthcare in
common, where there’s room for dashed expectations. On the consumer side beyond
Amazon, few stocks are likely to move more than Chipotle Mexican Grill, like Qualcomm,
Wednesday afternoon. Coincidently, Electronic Arts (Wednesday p.m.), Take Two (Thursday
p.m.) and THQ Interactive (ditto TTWO’s timing), all report this week, NPD data not,
particularly, encouraging. Because major pharma companies like Biogen Idec (Tues. am.),
look for Pfizer, that morning, also, as well as Aetna and Thermo Fisher (Wed. a.m.),
Allstate (Wed. p.m.), Allergan, Boston Scientific, Cigna, and Merck Thursday Morning, that
day’s stars, likely, CME and MasterCard, and a big day Friday, whose reports will
make up in punch for what they lack in quantity, with American Axle, AON, Clorox, Estee
Lauder, Healthnet, Panasonic, Simon Property, Tyson Foods, Volvo, and Weyerhauser. I
should mention that both ExxonMobil & Royal Dutch Shell report this week, Tuesday and
Thursday, respectively, so soon after Chevron sorely disappointed. And so do Manpower
& Kelly Services, Wednesday & Thursday, respectively, both with significant
exposure to Europe, who could confirm a significant slowdown in the Eurozone. There are
any number of minefields embedded in this week’s busy Earnings Calendar.
Two events to watch, this week, JPMorgan hosts Global Commodities, Wednesday, the same day
Cattlemen meet, and both AMD and Navistar will host Analyst Meetings. Thursday include
Raymond James Global Airline Conference, "Growth" dropped from the conference
name, yet Stem Cells World is likely to attract the most press. NADA’s (Nat’l
American Auto Dealers Ass’n) involves autos and trucks concurrently, with J. D.
Power’s Roundtable, the kick off, Friday. Still even a cursory glance down the
schedule makes the concentration of health-related events obvious.
Throughout, the dollar could rise and fall on the latest rumor of a Greek settlement with
creditors and, it appears, for now, Gold and Silver have already priced in most of the
inflation traders anticipate the FOMC’s decision to hold rates at zero into 2014 is
likely to trigger—inflation the bugaboo that’s been anticipated
enthusiastically, even as global deleveraging limits where inflation will go.
This week should be one of profit-taking and slow distribution of stocks, at least until
the January Unemployment Report is released, Friday. Retailers are unlikely to be too
enthusiastic about the near future for consumption, even as more companies will have a
hard time forecasting a continuation of double digit or, even, high single digit earnings
increases. The truth is, peak margins and, possibly, earnings, may already be baked into
stock prices. A period of consolidation that lasts right through to Q1 earnings reports is
possible. It’s a little late to get too excited about going long stocks.
ECONOMIC: (Here)
EARNINGS:
01/30 MONDAY a.m. GCI, HAE, PHG, KYO, RYAAY, WWW
p.m. BIRT, ALGN, BIDU??, CAJ, ETR, GGG,
HTLF, HOLX, ICUI, IDTI, KRC, MCK, OLN, PRXL, PCL, RGA, RCII, SLG, TGI
01/31 TUESDAY a.m. AXE, ADM, ARMH, AVY, BSYBY, BIIB, CE,
CEVA, CIT, DHR, LLY, ETR, XOM, GKSR, GNTX, HRS,
HHS, HP, HMC, ITW, KLIC, LLL, LXK, HZO, MAT, MHP, MTH, OSK,
PCAR, PNR, PFE, PCH, TECH, TLAB, TNB, TYC, X, UPS, VLO
p.m. ACE, ACXM, AFL, AMZN, AJG, BBOX, BXP, BRCM,
CHRW, BCR, DLB, FMB, FTNT, HLIT, ILMN, IVAC, IXUS, JKHY, JDAS, JLL,
KEYN, LFL, MANH, MTW, MYGN, NTAI, PLT, QGEN, STX, SLGN, STLY, UIS, WBSN
02/01 WEDNESDAY a.m. AET, ASCA, AOL, ARW, AUDC, ALV, BEAV, CVLT,
COCO, ENR, FIATY, BEN, HBI, HSY, IACI, ITG, LQDT, MAN, MKTX,
MGAM, NDAQ, NMR, NOC, OIIM, RDWR, ST, TMO, TUP, WHR During:
MRO
p.m. NDN?, ABCO, ALGT, ALL, DOX, AMP, AIZ,
ATW, AVB, BYI, BMC, SAN, CELL, CACI, CDNS, CMO, CENT, CMG,
CLB, CCK, EDMC, EA, EXXI, EQR, FBHS, GMCR, HAIN, HI, ISH, JDSU, LVS,
MKL, MKSI, NEU, OTEX, QCOM, RLD, REG, SGMO, SWM?, SFLY, SLH, SRDX, TSO,
TTEK, TSCO, WBC, VMC
02/02 THURSDAY a.m. AGN, ADS, ATK, AZN, BZH, BHE, BX, BSX,
BCO, CAM, CAH, CSL,, CX, CI, CME, CUB?, CMI, DB, DO,
DHX, DOW, ELUXY, RDEN, EPD?, EVR, GY, GR, HIT?, IP, IVC, K, KELYA,
KNSY, LSTR, LEA, LII, MHO, MA, MD, MRK, MWIV, NOV, NCI, NYT,
NVO, NUS, PTEN, PENN, PHM, ROLL, ROP, RCL, RDS.A, RGLD, R, SBH, SLE, SNA,
SNE, HOT, SXC, TE, TDW, UN, UL, USG, VIA,
p.m. APKT, NLY, BEBE, EPAY, BRS, CATM, CFN, CAVM, CBG?,
COLM, CNW, CYMI, DRIV, EW, FISV, GNW, GILD, IKAN, INFN, XXIA, KEX, MCHP, MAA, MTX, NFG, N,
NSR, NVLS, OPLK, PCCC, PKI, PFG, SIMO, SRCL, SUN, TTWO, THQI, TRMB,
VRTX, WYNN
02/03 FRIDAY a.m. AXL, AON, BEAM, BAH, CLX, UFS, EL, HNT, KNL,
MAC, MGI, PC, SPG, SIRO, SPB, TSN, VOVLY, WY
EVENTS:
01/29 CONTINUING SUNDAY
NY Int’l Gift & Housewares Fair + EX*Tracts (End today)
Society of Cardio-Thoracic Surgeons (Ft Lauderdale thru 02/01)
Am. College Winter Rheumatology (Snowmass CO thru 02/03)
Nat’l Franchise & Business Opportunities (Oklahoma City)
STARTING SUNDAY 01/29
Genetic & Molecular Basis of Obesity & Body Weight Regulation (Santa Fe
thru 02/03)
ASSP: Advanced Solid-State Photonics (San Diego thru 2/011)
Food Marketing Institute Mid-winter Executive Conference (Phoenix thru 01/31)
ISPO/Sports Source Europe (Munich thru 02/01)
Menswear Fall Preview (Chicago thru 01/31)
N.A. Pizza & Ice Cream Show (Columbus OH thru 01/30)
NFL Pro Bowl (Hawaii 7pm NBC et (CMSCK)
Screen Actors Guild Awards (TNT & TBS, both TWX networks. Broadcast starting 8pm et)
01/30 MONDAY
EU Summit
Cleaming Institute Annual (Formerly Soap & Detergent Ass’n thru 02/04)
Institutional Real Estate VIP Sponsor Briefing (Scottsdale thru 02/01: VIP means
Visions, Insights & Perspectives)
BioManufacturing Summit (San Diego thru 01/31)
Raving’s Indian Gaming Nat’l Marketing Conference (Rancho Mirage, CA thru
02/01)
World Furniture Mart (Las Vegas thru 02/03)
PaperWeek EXFOR & Annual Meeting (Montreal thru 02/03)
Phacilitate Cell & Gene Therapy & Vaccine Forum (D.C. thru 02/01)
Cisco (CSCO) Live London (Customer Event: Thru 02/05)
Wendy’s (WEN) Company Investor Day
FDA Pediatric Drugs CDER Announcement (Focused on safety of drugs for kids, incl.
Some not thought of as for kids that build bone or control cholesterol or blood pressure
or vaccines against cervical cancer. Dozens of drugs will be discussed)
RBC Marketing w/Yamana Gold Inc (AUY), Chinook Energy Inc (CNKEF), SNC Lavalin (SNC),
Weingarten Realty Investors (WRI), President Petroleum
01/31 TUESDAY
Health Benefits Conference
ITExpo East + 4G Wireless Evolution (aka 4GWE) (Miami Bch thru 02/03)
Pork Expo (Peoria IL thru 02/01)
AWMA: Convenience Retailing University (Ft Worth thru 02/02)
ICSC’s OAC: 2011 Holiday Review + 2012 Industry Trends Webinar
Credit Suisse Singapore Offshore & Marine Corporates
Deutsche Bank MENA Equity Conference (Dubai thru 02/01)
Digital Realty Trust (DLR) Analyst Day (NY 10am)
Research In Motion (RIMM) is supposed to deliver to activists, its review of its
business & future but that might have been done with the executive shake-up 2 weeks
ago
RBC Marketing w/Celestica (CLS), Chinook Energy Inc, Gold Resource Corp, SNC
Lavalin (SNC), Weingarten Realty Investors (WRI), President Petroleum
Florida Republican Presidential Primary
02/01 WEDNESDAY
JPMorgan Global Commodities Forum (London thru 02/02)
Stroke Association (New Orleans thru 02/03)
Cattlemen’s Beef Association (Nashville thru 02/04)
TD Ameritrade (AMTD) National Conference (Orlando thru 02/04)
Marine West (Camp Pendleton CA thru 02/02)
8th Annual Clean Tech Investor Summit (Palm Springs CA thru 02/02:
it’s an Int’l Business Forum)
Citi 8th Annual Asia Pacific Investor Conference (Hong Kong thru 02/03)
BAC/MER Philippines Corporate Day (Hong Kong)
AMD (AMD) Financial Analyst Day (Sunnyvale CA)
Constant Contact (CTCT) media launch of its "Social Campaigns."
Microsoft’s Kinect (MSFT) Comes to its Windows Software previewing the Win8
Metro interface
Navistar (NAV) Analyst Day (Lisle Hdqtrs starts 11am CT)
VistaPrint Ltd (VPRT) Investor Day (NY 8am)
JCPenney (JCP) sees Myron Ullman Retires from the board room
RBC Marketing w/Trican Well Service Ltd (TCW), Chinook Energy (CNKEF), Premier Gold
Mines Ltd, Weingarten Realty (WRI), Amerisur (UK: AMER)
02/02 THURSDAY
Raymond James Global Airline Conference (NY)
Houlihan Lokey’s (in partnership with Sidoti & Co) 2012 Consumer & Food
Conference
OGIS: Oil & Gas Investor Symposium (Palm Bch FL thru 02/03)
Stem Cells World Congress (San Diego thru 02/03)
Society for Cardiovascular Magnetic Resonance (Orlando thru 02/05)
Int’l Congress on Personalized Medicine (Florence Italy thru 02/05)
14th Int’l Symposium on Anti-Angiogenic Agents (La Jolla CA thru
02/04)
Dendritic Cells & Cancer Control by Tumor Suppressors & Immune Effectors
(Santa Fe thru 02/71)
7th Current Trends in Genitourinary Cancers Symposium (San Francisco
thru 02/04)
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) Financial Analyst Day (Sunnyvale CA: 8am PAC)
Lazard Capital 2012 Crude Tanker Markets, Iran & The Strait of Hormuz
Lazard Oil & Gas Bus Tour (Denver thru 02/03)
RBC Marketing w/Trican Well Services (TCW), Amerisur, Arcan Resources, Acorda
Therapeputics (ACOR), Gold Resource Corp, Atacama Pacific Gold, Weingarten Realty
Trust (WRI), Aerospace & Defense Wine Dinner
B. Riley & Co Roadshow w/Charming Shoppes Inc (CHRS) in Chicago
02/03 FRIDAY
J.D. Power Int’l Automotive Roundtable & NADA Welcome Reception (Vegas)
NADA/ATD Nat’l Auto/Truck Dealers Ass’n (Las Vegas thru 02/06)
Mid-West Truckers Ass’n (Peoria IL thru 02/04)
St. Jude (STJ) Investor Day (NY)
Ralcorp (RAH) Spins out Post Cereals to Shareholders which will trade under (POST)
on NYSE Spin-out is a rate of 1 POST for each 2 RAH
RBC Marketing w/Amerisur
02/04 SATURDAY
AAOS: Orthopaedic Research Society & Orthopaedic Surgeons Annual Meeting (San
Francisco thru 02/11) Research Society meets from the 4—7th, the Surgeons
come in on the 7th thru the 11) Many Orthopaedic parts makers host analyst
meetings coincident with this
SLAS: Lab Automation (San Diego thru 02/08)
SCCM: 41st Critical Care Congress (Houston TX thru 02/08)
SPIE: Medical Imaging (San Diego thru 02/09)
Nevada Republican Presidential Primary
Get ready to Target’s (TGT) Launch of the Jason Wu line in stores & online
tomorrow. Missoni launch nearly sold out in 2 hours so, hopefully, TGT is more ready this
time for onlne sales
© Nothing contained in this commentary should be construed as a recommendation to buy or
sell any security. The opinions expressed are the author’s, alone, and should be just
one factor in more complete due diligence.
CAN THE BULLS KEEP IT UP?
January 23—27, 2012 If you’re old enough to remember the "Nifty
50," then last week must have felt reminiscent to others. There were IBM, Microsoft
and Intel, the 3 horsemen of old tech, being feted to the upside on what were earnings
that did nothing but beat lowered expectations, Microsoft & Intel having warned of
slow PC sales, Softee only a week earlier. Did anyone else notice outsized volume in
P&G, last week? Wasn’t it just a few short weeks ago that traders in the U.S.
were anticipating QE3, as soon as, possibly, this week’s FOMC meeting? Curious that
stocks have rallied with such spirit, since the New Year began, (and VIX has all but
collapsed), since it, certainly, dampens the FOMC’s sense of any urgency for QE3.
Part of what saved U.S. markets, it seems, was the conclusion that the ECB’s LTRO was
a form of QE3. With another coming, later in February, which many feel will solve the
EU’s and its banks’ funding problems, for a year or two, it’s a lot to ask
for stocks to continue rallying until then. Especially with Greece’s debt exchange
still hanging in the balance, the reason Merkel & the IMF’s Lagarde are sitting
down together, to end the weekend, before flying off to Davos, where Merkel has the honor
of delivering the opening keynote. (The ECB’s LTRO is a Long Term Refinancing
operation, in both cases mentioned, for 3-years, at 1%, with the total expected to reach
800B euros by the time the second offering is completed)
The will be the heaviest week of Earnings reports, yet. Still, it may not be Earnings that
defines the week. There are two huge items coming this week, while China and much of Asia
will be off to celebrate the Lunar New Year, the year of the Dragon. The first is the
government’s first guess of 4Q11 GDP, which will be released Friday. Analysts are
expecting 3% but, be aware, revisions in recent years have mostly been down, and there are
two more monthly guesses to follow, the last the "final." The real star of the
week, will be the FOMC Statement and Press Conference to follow the 2-day FOMC meeting,
which starts Tuesday. It’ll be a momentous event because, for the first time, ever,
the post meeting detritus will include the interest rate forecasts, for the next several
years, from each committee member. The latest enhancement arrives after only 3 quarterly
quarterly Press Conferences, Bernanke’s goal of more transparency on full display.
That won’t make the FOMC’s outlook any more accurate than the abysmal record its
posted, to date, missing how much damage the subprime mortgage fiasco would inflict on the
economy but, it you want to know, sooner, how faulty their thinking is, this latest
addition is for you. Note results of a recent study from the Federal Reserve, published in
a gloss-over by the Wall Street Journal, on 1/5/12, in the "Overheard" column,
described bullish action that was more likely prior to, than after, the decision, at least
since the FOMC began announcing its decision publicly, in 1994. The WSJ said, "Since
then, excess returns on U.S. stocks have been more than 30 times larger on the decision
day, then others…. Gains are made in the 24 hours leading up to the decision, not
after the FOMC decision." But on Monday, expect some volatile action and a pullback
in the morning because that’s typical of post-expiration action, and even the bulls
have to be wondering how long stocks will continue celebrating earnings that are, simply,
not as bad as the worst fears.
A number of financial writers have mentioned the behind the scenes pressure for a bank
foreclosure settlement to be reached by the time Pres. Obama delivers his SOTU, Tuesday
evening. The States Attorney Generals from NY and CA are said to be hold-outs, so the
question might become, will the other states involved forge ahead without those two, so
Obama has something to tout during the SOTU? Does that make sense to anyone, other than a
speculating financial writer? Most of the settlement--still rumored to be between
$25—40B--is expected not in cash but in principal forgiveness—damn the moral
hazard or inequity—since those who responsibly borrowed and continue paying off their
mortgage get nothing. Still, housing related stocks would celebrate anything that brings
relief to homeowners and the financials could rally hardest, if it happens. Any settlement
is likely to take prosecution and puts-backs off the table, which will considerably lower
their remaining unquantifiable exposure.
And then of course, can we discuss central planning and settlements without asking the
question on many a trader’s mind: Does China ease policy during the Lunar New Year
holiday? That’s been its m.o., to date, easing on Friday’s before a long weekend
or during some other multi-day holiday. Inquiring minds need to know because on so many
other metrics, the rally that started in November is getting a little long in the tooth,
the drop in VIX just one sign of how few are set up for bad news. With semi’s and
financials rallying hard last week, it was a classic rally that few in this business for
more than a few days have been taught to respect. But up here at resistance, with VIX
sub-20, and the slug of earnings reports set for release, it would sure help the rampant
bulls if China put the icing on the cake and eased, as well.
If you’re looking for stocks that are rallying to break outs or posed to, which few
are talking about, you might take a look at Media companies, ex-Viacom, which is currently
lagging. News Corp broke out after announcement of the 36 hacking suit settlements, while
Comcast is threatening to follow suit, and Time Warner is poised to join in. Worth
mentioning since, if these are meaningful break outs, it’s still very early in their
run.
I’m sure there were many comforted, last week, to see that Google’s miss
didn’t completely derail the rally in stocks. Can that sustain if Apple misses,
Tuesday? We might not have to find out, this time. With Apple launching the iPhone 4S in
21 countries plus China, late in 2011 stirring near mobs at its stores in Beijing &
Shanghai, apparently, so threatening that the stores shut down and Apple decided not to
sell the phones in them, at all, it’s a fair bet that Apple’s iPhone numbers
will easily offset any weakness it might have seen in any other product category—if
it saw any weakness, at all. In short, the rally should see a pause and pullback, this
week, but that’s no more guaranteed than continuation of the rally. Don’t know
what they’re smoking, down on Wall Street, but it hasn’t been diffused into more
distant states, yet. Evidently, pullbacks are to be bought, until they’re not. All
those morning pullbacks that resolved with upside days, have telegraphed that pretty
clearly. But a week's worth of digestion doesn't seem out of line.
ECONOMIC: (Here)
EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS: (This is THE week for earnings.
We’re slanted towards consumer names, even as we attempt to provide a valid cross
section of reports—the dates not checked by us personally, instead relying on
suppliers. "?" Means we question the date. Emboldened are tickers most likely to
influence markets, or sectors, major index, or give clues to bigger peers yet to report.
We also make allowances for companies under shareholder or media scrutiny)
01/23 MONDAY a.m. HAL p.m. , CSX, STM,
TXN, VMW, WDC
01/24 TUESDAY a.m. BHI, EAT, CNI, COH, DD, EMC, HOG, IGT,
JNJ,, KMB, MCD, BTU, DGX, SI, TRV, VZ
p.m. AMD, ALTR, AAPL, ETH, FIO, NSC,
STLD, SYK, TPX, YHOO
01/25 WEDNESDAY a.m. ABT, ATI, ADP, AVX, BA, ELY, COP,
GLW, DAL, GD, HES, NVS, OXY, PII, PX, ROK, SO, STJ,
TEL, UTX, LCC, GWW, WLP
p.m. CTXS,CVD, CCI, DLPH?, HXL, JEC,
LRCX, MUR, NFLX, NE, OI, RHI?, SNDK, SWK, SYMC
01/26 THURSDAY a.m. MMM, ALK, ABC, T, AN, AVT,
BLL, CAT, CELG, CL, COV, ETN, ISCA, ESI,
LMT, MKC, MJN, MEG, MWW, NUE, POT, PCP, RTN,
RGS, SHW, TWC,UA, ZMH
p.m. AMGN, ARBA, CB, DV,
EMN, ELX, JNPR, KLAC, MCRS, MMI?, RMD, RVBD, RHI, RYL, SCSC, SBUX,
TSCO?, VRSN, WMS
01/27 FRIDAY a.m. MO, CVX, D, DHI, F, HON,
LPL, PG,
p.m. BH, SCCO
EVENTS:
01/22 Continuing Sunday
SPIE Photonics West (San Francisco & multiple sub-conferences thru 26th)
51st Annual Vegetable & Flower Seed Conference (Tampa thru 24th)
Pret-a-Porter (Versaille thru 24th)
Sundance Film Festival
STARTING SUNDAY 01/22
Vancouver Resource Investment Conference (Vancouver thru 23rd)
ASF: American Securitization Forum (Vegas thru 25th)
Inside ETFs (Hollywood FL thru 24th)
ALEx Retail Leadership Forum (Naples FL thru 24th)
ICSC Whistler Conference (thru 24th)
NDIA Annual Acquisition Symposium (Vegas thru 23rd—Nat’l Defense
Industry Ass’n)
DLD 12 (Munich: Digital Life Design but what makes it high profile is the statement
that the event, though it ends in Munich on the 24th, "continues with
cocktails on the 25th at Davos World Economic Forum
GAIM USA (Boca Raton FL for hedge funds & their investors thru 25th)
ABA Insurance Risk Management
AT&T (T) initiates new, higher minimum data plan, up 33% to $20
01/23 MONDAY
Chinese New Year : Year of the Dragon
NATPE Content First (TV Programming Execs thru 25th: Miami Bch)
Nat’l Poultry Expo (Atlanta thru 26th)
Call Center Summit (Orlando thru 26th)
AHR (HVAC) iExpo (Chicago thru 25th)
Tour d"Alis Lodging Investment Conference (L.A. thru 25th)
Network Centric Warfare (Alexandria VA thru 25th)
Digital Book World Conference & Expo (NY thru 25th)
FETC: Florida Educational Technology Conference (Orlando thru 26th, and
not as local as it sounds)
Last day for Lehman Bros to match offers for the 26.5% Archstone debt BAC
& BCS are looking to unload. EQY withdrew its bid
DealFlow Media Activist Investor Conference (NY)
LSE Alternative Investments Conference (EU Commission could make its final
NYSE/Deutsche Borse merger ruling today)
OOP: Object Oriented Programs (Munich thru 27th; aka Scalable Software
Systems & Solutions)
MicroStrategy (MSTR) World (Miami thru 26th)
ICE Totally Gaming Int’l Casino Expo (incl Awards in London, thru 26th,
US interest renewed by recent Supreme Court ruling, for the first time since the
enforcement of the Customs Laws saw arrests of high profile online gambling execs upon
entry into US)
Electronic Arts (EA), Virgin Gaming, & GameStop (GME) Kick off the EA
Sports Challenge Series (competitors drawn from most skilled players of Madden NFL 12, NHL
12, & FIFA 12 but only within the GME PowerUp Rewards Pro members. Finals April in NY)
RBC Marketing w/Niko Resources, Kosmos (KOS),
01/24 TUESDAY
Pres. Obama televised State of the Union Address to jt session of Congress
TD Newcrest Mining Conference (Toronto thru 25th)
DistribuTECH (San Antonio thru 26th)
Int’l Feed Expo (Atlanta: See Poultry started 1/23)
World Of Concrete & Surfaces (Vegas thru 27th)
AFCEA West: "America’s Military At the Crossroads: What’s Out and
What’s In for 2012 & Beyond?" (San Diego again, for defense suppliers)
IDGA Cyber Defense & Network Security (London thru 27th)
MPMC Media Trade Council Media Conference (Motorsports Parts Manufacturers in
cooperation with SEMA, the Specialty Equipment Market Ass’n 3-day Media briefing)
Deutsche Bank Renewable Power Day (Sao Paulo)
IDC Server & DataCenter Predictions for 2012 (webcast)
Pool & Spa Show (Atlantic City: comes as LOW & HD reach for multi-year
highs thru 26th)
Bill Barrett Corp (BBG) Investor Event (9:30am et)
Watson Pharmaceuticals (WPI) Investor Meeting (NY 8am et)
Lazard Capital Marketing, separately, with Argos Therapeutics, and Concho Resources (CXO)
RBC Marketing w/Regus Group @ a Lunch, Fifth Street Financial Corp, Niko Resources, Allied
Gold, Regus Group Lunch
Nominations for the Oscars announced in the wee hours of the morning on the west
coast.
01/25 WEDNESDAY
FOMC Meeting statement, press conference, long range outlook, and individual
members’ rate outlook
World Economic Forum (Davos Klosters Switzerland thru 29th)
Display Search Japan (Tokyo )
NYSSA American Gas Association Outlook (NY)
Opal Financial Energy Investment Forum (Austin)
Global Biofuels Summit (Barcelona thru 26th)
Mobile Games Forum (London thru 26th)
Yankee Dental Congress (Boston thru 29th)
Iowa Pork Congress (Des Moines thru 26th)
Telestrategies Telco eCare & Billing Output (Miami thru 26th)
BAC/MER 2012 Multi-Asset Conference (Boston: Only BAC/MER perspectives)
PGA Merchandise Show (Golf: Orlando thru 28th)
Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP) Analyst Meeting (9am et)
JCPenney (JCP) 2-day Analyst meeting starts 9am 35
Repros Therapeutics (RPRX) Analyst Day (9am et NY)
Private Equity Analyst Outlook (from Dow Jones, a NWS Co)
Lazard Capital marketing w/Oracle (ORCL) for 2-days, and separately, with Westport
Innovations (WPRT)
RBC Marketing w/Niko Resources, Premier Oil, Kosmos (KOS), Resolution
Electronic Art’s (EA) Dead Space 2 released
01/26 THURSDAY
MacWorld Expo (San Francisco thru 28th, from IDG, ex-AAPL)
New Airline Truth-in-Advertising Fare Rule Effective Date
SIA Snow Sports (Denver thru 31st, including Demo)
X Games (Aspen thru 29th)
FSX Investment Conference (Dallas thru 28th: FSX=Financial Services
Exchange)
Multidisciplinary Symposium on Lung & Head & Neck Cancers and Symposium on
Thoracic Oncology (Phoenix thru 28th from ASTRO in Affiliation with ASCO & IASLC)
Nuclear Radiology (Orlando thru 29th)
Molina Healthcare (MOH) Investor Day (12:30pm et NY)
JCPenney (JCP) analyst meeting ends at 11am et
Rising Stars Fashion Awards (NY)
Platt’s Caribbean Energy (Bahamas thru 27th)
Goldman Sachs LatAm Transportation & Infrastructure (London thru 27th)
Guelph Organic Conference (Canada thru 29th)
Lazard Capital Biopharma Dinner with Pfizer (PFE) Exec on Orphan Drug Buz Strategy
and, separately, marketing w/Oracle (ORCL) Corporation in Minneapolis
RBC Marketing w/Niko Resources, TransForce Inc, Boralex Inc (BLX),
attends Kimberly Clark Corp (KMB) Group Lunch
01/27 FRIDAY
BHP Billiton (BHP) Announces Diamond Asset Evaluation (BHP said end of month, so may
not be today)
RBC Marketing w/TransForce Inc, Yamana Gold, First Quantum
01/28 SATURDAY
NY International Gift & Housewares Fair (NY thru 29th) includes EX*Tracts
NY
American College of Rheumatology Winter Symposium)
Society of Cardio-Thoracic Surgeons (Ft Lauderdale thru 02/01)
MIDEM (Cannes, France: Recorded, Music Publishing & Video Music Int’l
Community))
Nat’l Franchise & Business Opportunities (Oklahoma City thru 29th)
EARLIER
OUTLOOKS HERE
©Sandi Lynne 2012 Nothing contained in this commentary should be construed
as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The opinions expressed are the
author’s, alone, and should be just one factor in more complete due diligence.
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Regards,
Sandi Lynne